What I’m listening to: Fat Tony “Invasion (f/Smash Bro)” Hello little pretty, i wrote a little dittie while i rolled a little phillie while i rolled out on the city.
Well, to be fair, most of the games so far have been boring. Their are many reasons for the lack of goals in the first week, starting with the fear teams have in losing their first game. It’s a rather justified fear: since the introduction of the 32-team format in 1998, only three teams have come back to advance after losing their first game, which tallies to somewhere near 8%. On the flip side, roughly 60% advance after a first game draw, with that chances increased to the mid-eighties after a win. Those stats alone give a justification for teams to park the bus in the first game. Another reason stems from the 4-5-1 and variations that many teams are using in the WC, which allows the wing players and full backs to make dynamic runs (see: Podolski and Maicon) and add a different layer than a conventional 4-4-2 allows teams to use. The final problem stems from the altitude that most games are being played out in mixture with the Jabulani ball. The ball is proven to be the most aerodynamic ball, with the spin and floating on the ball the greatest a ball has ever seen. Many superstars have blamed the ball (although their are possible sponsorship issues that have led to Nike and others theoretically telling their main stars to complain about the adidas ball), some even dubbing it a Wal-Mart ball and complaining that where the ball ends up is a guess. After watching a part of all but two games so far, I can say with confidence that I haven’t seen any strange movements of the ball (Maicon’s goal seemed strange, but I think it’s more of his mad skill). However, the altitude seems to be a large factor; most missed shots have sailed over the goal, rather than missing to the sides. The combination of the altitude and the ball has seen many balls sail over the goal; the only team that didn’t seem to have a problem was Germany, who used the ball for part of their season in the Bundesliga. These four factors seem to have allowed for defense to become the name of the game, and it has shown through the Castrol Player rating index, which has given a rating of 8 or higher to six goalkeepers and 39 defenders, while only giving it to nine midfielders and three strikers (including Leo Messi). Defense seemed to be the key for the first round of games, but with more teams now under pressure in the second round it will be interesting to see how many teams will start going for it, and hopefully the strikers have figured out where to strike the ball.
After watching all but four teams (France and Uruguay due to jetlag, Argentina and Nigeria due to traveling to the US game) and taking in a decent amount of analysis, I have come up with a power ranking of the 28 teams that have played (I will edit this after tomorrow’s Group H games) as well as composed a 4-5-1 of the best players in the first five days.
Power Rankings
1. Germany- an obvious choice. They dominated a weak Australian team, making incredible midfield runs that sliced and diced through the Socceroo back four. Ozil, Mueller, and Podolski were deadly from the start, and with Khedira and Schweinsteiger keeping composure and possession in the midfield, they dominated play. Expect a good game between them and the Serbs, who have a damn good back line (American expatriat Neven Subotic might team up with Nemanja Vidic i the middle).
2. Korea Republic- A dominating performance from the Koreans against a crumbling Greek side. Park Ji-Sung was absolute masterclass, and Korea’s solid possession mixed with dynamic attacks makes them dangerous. Argentina-South Korea will be a great game (one I hopefully get to go see).
3. Brazil- The selecao took a long time to crack the taut North Korean defense, and it only did so thanks to the traditional Brazilian beauty: a cracking shot from Maicon on the by-line that was masterclass (definitely not meant to be a cross) and a pass by Robinho that was perfectly weighted and perfectly timed that sped through four or five Koreans that Elano deftly passed into the left corner. The goal they gave up at the end makes you pause, but an 89th minute goal is forgivable. The combination Dunga has going is dangerous: a solid middle of Lucio, Juan, Felipe Melo and Gilberto Silva keeps this team grounded defensively, while dynamic full backs Maicon and Michel Bastos bring more firepower to a trio of Kaka, Robinho, and Luis Fabiano that is one of the best in South Africa.
4. Ivory Coast- Unfortunate to draw with Portugal, and picked up a lot of energy after the introduction of Drogba. They played well-orgnized team football, and when you have guys like the Toure brothers, Eboue, Kalou, Dindane, and Jarzinho playing with Drogba, you have a deadly team. I’m worried that they might not make it out of group still, but if they do they will be one of the best teams going forward.
5. Italy- The defending champs didn’t get all three points, but they played terrifically against Paraguay and responded well after going down to a great goal. Danielle De Rossi is absolutely fantastic, and is set for a big tournament. They played gritty football with some flair injected with Pepe and the late sub of Di Natale. They need to leave one of the duo of Iaquinta and Gilardino on the bench, they are too alike. With the hardest fixture of the group state behind them, expect them to advance comfortably.
6. Spain- Yes, they lost. But if you watched the game, you know they executed exactly as they wanted to. The problem seemed to a huge amount of terrible crosses; Sergio Ramos, David Silva, and later Navas all had good space to cross it, but most of them were short, and the Swiss ate them up. Torres doesn’t seem to have his typical class, which is concerning. They have two must-win games against Chile and Honduras. Would be the biggest shock in my WC history if they don’t advance.
7. Netherlands- Showed flashes of the Dutch flair, but too many playmaker types (Van Der Vaart and Sneijder in one midfield does not work) and not enough finishers (uh, what the fuck Van Persie?) makes them weaker than they should be. Adding Elia gave them some good pace and intensity, Kuyt’s workman approach continues to work well, and Van Der Wiel played excellent football out of right back. Expect some changes in a team that still has some challenges left, especially against a better than expected Japan.
8. Argentina- Didn’t look great in the win, but seeing Leo Messi play well bodes well for a team that nearly depends on him. Higuain was terrible, but the defense shut down Nigeria. Mascherano is huge for them in the middle, and will continue to be. They should continue to improve as long as Maradona keeps steady mentally.
9. Switzerland- Wow. A big upset over Spain. They defended in numbers, and their counter was terrific. They have enough class up front to implement this strategy well and advance out of Group H with a first place look.
10. Ghana- The Black Stars played tough defense against a good Serbian squad, but were lucky to beat them (a what the fuck moment for Serbia). I don’t think they can truly challenge for the championship without Essien, however. He was truly the best all-around player in the world, Gerrard included.
11. Chile- Their attack was rather dynamic, but to not score more than one against a Honduran team that seemed to be a little weak at the back. However, they brought flair to the game and shut down the even weaker Honduran attack. Got the three points expected of them; need to get results from the next two.
12. USA- Don’t call it a win. But they played well. I’ll have a lot more about our boys later.
13. Japan- Played well-organized and good soccer against a favored Cameroon squad (um, why didn’t Alex Song play?). Keisuke Honda will be one of the stars of the tournament. The question is where they will get the rest of their power from.
14. England- They need to have Rooney find his form, or they will not be getting out of the quarterfinals. They have a solid team, but in a tournament where EVERYONE has a solid team, they need more. Gerrard adds a lot out of midfield (he needs to be taking free kicks, not Fat Frank), Glen Johnson and Aaron Lennon on the right were fantastic, but other than that no one showed that extra energy needed to beat the great teams.
15. Paraguay- A legitimate South American power now. They played tough D, and they have a plethora of strikers to choose from. A lot of unfamiliar names, but watch for Oscar Cardozo, their big striker. A dark horse for a semifinal run.
16. Mexico- Outplayed a jacked-up Bafana Bafana, but were still lucky to get a tie. Their quick possession game could cause problems for France and Uruguay, and Gio Dos Santos needs to continue to play the way he did. He’ll need help though; Franco disappeared, as did Vela. Still have work to do to get out of the group.
17. North Korea- Yes, they lost. But if you didn’t watch it, they play the most disciplined of anyone. It took two moments of brilliance for the best team in the world to beat them. The big question is offensive firepower, but Jung Tae Se can play with anyone, and they managed to get a late goal. After being shrouded in mystery, they have emerged as a potent fourth team in the “Group of Death”.
18. Bafana Bafana- Played inspiring ball against El Tri, but will need more to crack the nasty defense of Uruguay. They need to move Pienaar to a wing to utilize him efficiently, bring Parker into the middle. They have a dynamic counter-attack, and are well organized which we didn’t see at the Confederations Cup. Have a difficult time ahead in Group A.
19. Serbia- Have a hill to climb, but they can do it. Krasic needs to do more for the offense as does Pantelic, but if the defense can hold the German attack, which they can, then they have a chance to advance still over a team I thought was better than Ghana.
20. Portugal- Cristiano disappeared after that yellow (and after a breath-taking shot that almost went in from about 35 yards or so), and the rest of the team did not play well against a team that was superior. I don’t expect them to be able to break down North Korea.
21. France- Yea, they’re in trouble. No one can finish for them, although they had their chances. I still see them progressing, but it will be very hard. If Raymond Domenech brings this down in the first round, I’m going to be very pissed. The most talented team in the entire world cup, minus Spain. They just need to work better together. Quickly.
22. Slovenia- Played well-organized football and capitalized with a Robert Koren shot that Chaouchi’s dumbass self tried to pick up. Lucky to be at the top of the group, and it makes this next game for the U.S. very tricky and dangerous.
23. Uruguay- Withheld the French attack barely. They have to face the dangerous Bafana Bafana next, and they have to get Forlan and Suarez into play more. Their defense is excellent, so it should be a damn good matchup tomorrow.
24. Cameroon- Didn’t watch much of this game, but seemed to have the run of play until Honda’s goal and then got suffocated by Japan. They need Alex Song in the middle, and they have an uphill battle to progressing.
25. Nigeria- Didn’t do much against Argentina, and were lucky their keep, Enyeama, was so on top of the game, or Messi would’ve made it worse. I can’t see them progressing.
26. Denmark- A solid game, but an unlucky own goal by Simon Poulsen off the back of Daniel Agger changed the entire game. They still have a damn good shot to advance, but their offense was shady at best.
27. Slovakia- Marek Hamsik did not show up for them against the Kiwis, and it cost them two points. Vladimir Weiss played well, but they don’t have the horses to stay in the group.
28. Honduras- Held down a nasty Chilean attack, but they don’t seem to have the firepower up front to claim a spot in the next round. My Spur Wilson Palacios is a nasty defender in the middle, but his inability to attack hurts them.
29. New Zealand- Played a defensive, slow game (and I mean SLOOOOW) and got a last gasp goal from their right back, Reid. Still not good at all, but good to see them get a point.
30. Algeria- Have class in the midfield, but their goalkeeper is pure trash and they can’t connect passes very well. Bye-bye, Algeria: you’re done after England.
31. Australia- Awful. No defense, Cahill red carded, really just a mess. The only good news is they just played a great team and the best in thr group. They can still advance, but not really.
32. Greece- The whole team was yelling at each other, they had no offensive direction or force except Gekas. They’re done.
Team of the first round
GK: Itumeleng Khune (Bafana Bafana) Castrol Index Rating: 6.35
Made two or three dynamic saves to keep Bafana Bafana alive, including a cracker from Dos Santos.
back up: Tim Howard (USA); yea, he made great saves, but they were all right at him.
Full-backs: Maicon (Brazil) and Gregory Van Der Wiel (Netherlands)
Both added a lot to their offense, as well as being great stoppers. Maicon’s goal is the second best in the WC yet (Tshabalala’s was dirty).
bench: Steve Cherundolo (USA) and Bacary Sagna (France)
Center backs: Gabriel Heinze (Argentina) and Kolo Toure (Ivory Coast)
Heinze got the only goal in the win over Nigeria as well as playing great defense. Toure was a rock at the back, supplying his forwards with great balls as well.
Back-up: Lee Jung-Soo (South Korea) and Antolin Alcaraz (Paraguay)
Wingers: Park Ji-Sung (South Korea) and Thomas Mueller (Germany)
Park was all over the place for Korea, and dominated the match including a blistering run through three defenders to score the second. Mueller, only 20, playing great for Germany, combining well with Ozil and making great runs and had great positional awareness.
Back-up: Keisuke Honda (Japan) and Aaron Lennon (England)
Center Mids: Mesut Ozil (Germany), Danielle De Rossi (Italy), and Javier Mascherano (Argentina)
Mesut made insane runs behind the Aussie D, and almost had a cheeky goal until Lucas Neill cleared it off the line. De Rossi was everywhere and everything for Italy. Mascherano destroyed Nigerian hopes and dreams.
Striker: Robinho
Had great awareness and a sick pass to Elano to wrap the game up.
Our boys
They US played a fantastic game against England, clogging up passing lanes, making smart passes, and playing tough across the back line. The Slovenia game is a must-win, and will be rather interesting. Expect to see Torres sub in for Clark, and maybe Buddle for Findley to counterract a Slovenian side that is all about organization at the back that won’t allow for a speedster to spread them out. The strength of their team in the last game came in their ability to hold the ball in the middle; when they didn’t, England began pushing up and attacking hard. Torres is a better midfielder than Clark in terms of holding the ball and distributing (in fact, he’s probably the American’s best passer). Bradley will probably step more into a defensive role in the midfield with some nice runs into the Slovenian box; his runs against Turkey were one of the main factors that allowed us to beat them, as they created chaos in the back. Donovan and Dempsey will be able to add to the attack a lot more in this game, since they won’t have to contain the likes of Gerrard, Fat Frank, Aaron Lennon, and Shaun Wright-Phillips. Bob Bradley seems to have developed into a master tactician; the game the U.S. played well against England was a possession-based game that America rarely uses. If he is able to bring in attack with numbers while also tying down the Slovenian counter, then the Americans should have no problem with the Mountain Boys (that’s the Green Charlie Brown line on their shirt).
My predicted lineup
GK Howard
DEF Cherundolo DeMerit Onyewu Bocanegra
MID Dempsey Bradley Torres Donovan
FOR Altidore Buddle
My prediction: Dempsey and Donovan turn up the offense, with Dempsey putting in a cracker from just outside the box followed by a Donovan free kick goal. After that, Altidore will net a big bruising goal to make it 3-0 US. Gooch and DeMerit will not let a damn thing through.
